An aggressive U.S. tariff policy is expected to cause a notable deceleration in the U.S. economy over the coming two years, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The findings suggest that the median probability of a recession occurring within the next 12 months has risen to nearly 50%.
Economists cited concerns that higher tariffs on imports could lead to increased costs for businesses and consumers, reduce trade activity, and hamper overall economic growth. The anticipated economic slowdown in 2024 and 2025 is seen as a direct consequence of more protectionist trade measures.
The survey reflects growing uncertainty among financial experts about the impact of U.S. trade policies, and highlights the challenges faced by policymakers as they seek to balance domestic industry protection with broader economic health. Analysts warn that if tariffs continue to rise, the likelihood of a contraction will become increasingly difficult to avoid.
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